Week One Bubble Watch

Week One Bubble Watch 

We are about to head into February and I thought it would be a good idea to breakdown the bubble. This will be an ongoing article coming out Saturday mornings every week until Selection Sunday. I will discuss it for each and every conference in College Basketball, this will become meaningless at some point with some mid-major leagues but I am determined to mention each mid-major team. While we still are a long way from Selection Sunday, it is always good to get an idea of where each team is currently at when discussing their tournament chances.

Bubble level Breakdowns: 

Lock: This type of team is going to make the NCAA Tournament, they could lose out and they would probably still make it. 

Safe: This type of team is likely very safe, they could afford a big losing streak and they still would be in the driver’s seat for a bid.

Room to spare: This type of team is safe for now but they are still needing to collect a few wins to stay away from the bubble. 

Work left to do: This type of team is in the projected field but they still need to play well in order to avoid going on the bubble. 

Bubble: This type of team right now is likely living and dying by every game if they win they could be in but if they lose a game they could be out, these types of teams are listed in the Last Four In or on the First Four Out. 

Outside Looking in: This type of team is pretty clearly out but if they can make a run they could get back on the bubble and potentially move into the field of 68.

Win Conference Tournament: This type of team will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, their hopes of an at-large bid is gone. 

ACC

Lock: Duke and Virginia

Safe: North Carolina, Louisville, and Virginia Tech

Room to spare: NC State and Florida State

Work left to do: Syracuse

Bubble: Pittsburgh and Clemson

Outside Looking in: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Boston College

Win Conference Tournament: Wake Forest

Big Ten

Lock: Michigan and Michigan State

Safe: Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Room to spare: Nebraska

Work left to do: Indiana

Bubble: Ohio State and Minnesota

Outside Looking in: Northwestern

Win Conference Tournament: Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois

Big 12

Lock: Kansas

Safe: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Iowa State

Room to spare: TCU

Work left to do: Baylor and Texas

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: Oklahoma State and West Virginia

Win Conference Tournament: No teams

Big East

Lock: Marquette

Safe: Villanova

Room to spare: No teams

Work left to do: St. John’s

Bubble: Seton Hall, Butler, and Creighton 

Outside Looking in: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier, and Providence

Win Conference Tournament: No teams

SEC

Lock: Tennessee and Kentucky

Safe: LSU

Room to spare: Ole Miss, and Mississippi State

Work left to do: Auburn and Alabama

Bubble: Florida

Outside Looking in: South Carolina, Missouri and Arkansas

Win Conference Tournament: Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M

PAC-12

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams

Work left to do: Washington

Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon and Arizona

Outside Looking in: Oregon State

Win Conference Tournament: UCLA, USC, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, and California

American

Lock: No teams

Safe: Houston

Room to spare: No teams

Work left to do: Cincinnati

Bubble: UCF and Temple

Outside Looking in: Memphis

Win Conference Tournament: SMU, South Florida, Uconn, Tulsa, Wichita State, East Carolina, and Tulane

West Coast Conference

Lock: Gonzaga

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: San Francisco, St. Mary’s 

Win Conference Tournament: BYU, San Diego, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific, Portland

Mountain West

Lock: No teams

Safe: Nevada

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: Utah State, Fresno State

Win Conference Tournament: UNLV, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming, San Jose State

MAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: Buffalo

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Bowling Green, Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Toledo, Central Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan

Atlantic 10

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: VCU, St. Louis, Davidson

Win Conference Tournament: George Mason, Duquesne, Dayton, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, La Salle, St. Joesph’s, Richmond, Fordham, Umass

Southern Conference

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: Wofford

Outside Looking in: Furman, East Tennessee State and UNC Greensboro

Win Conference Tournament: Chattanooga, Mercer, Samford, Western Carolina, The Citadel, VMI

Ohio Valley

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: Murray State

Win Conference Tournament: Jacksonville State, Austin Peay, Belmont, Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky, SIU Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri, Tennessee-Martin

Conference USA

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Old Dominion, North Texas, UAB, Marshall, UTSA, Florida International, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee, Charlotte, UTEP

Missouri Valley

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Loyola-Chicago, Valparaiso, Drake, Illinois State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Bradley

Ivy League

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Princeton, Penn, Yale, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth

Horizon 

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Northern Kentucky, Wright State, Oakland, Detroit, IUPUI, Green Bay, Illinois-Chicago, Milwaukee, Youngstown State, Cleveland State

Colonial

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Hofstra, Delaware, Northeastern, Charleston, Drexel, UNC Wilmington, William & Mary, Towson, James Madison, Elon

Big South

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Radford, Winthrop, Campbell, High Point, Hampton, Presbyterian, Longwood, Gardner-Webb, Charleston Southern, UNC Ashville, South Carolina Upstate

American East

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Vermont, Stony Brook, Umass Lowell, UMBC, Hartford, Binghamton, New Hampshire, Maine, Albany

Summit League

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: South Dakota State, Nebraska-Omaha, IPFW, Oral Roberts, South Dakota, North Dakota State, Western Illinois, Denver, North Dakota

Sun Belt

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Georgia State, Texas State, Texas-Arlington, Louisiana Monroe, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, Troy, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Little Rock, Appalachian State

Atlantic Sun

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Liberty, Lipscomb, North Alabama, NJIT, North Florida, Jacksonville, Florida Gulf Coast, Stetson, Kennesaw State

MAAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Rider, Canisius, Iona, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Siena, St. Peter’s, Marist, Niagara, Manhattan, Fairfield

Patriot League

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Bucknell, Lehigh, Army, Colgate, American, Loyola-Maryland, Navy, Holy Cross, Boston University, Lafayette

Big West

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, Cal-State Northridge, Cal-State Fullerton, Hawaii, Long Beach State, UC Riverside, UC Davis, Cal Poly

WAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Cal-State Bakersfield, Grand Canyon, New Mexico State, Utah Valley, Cal Baptist, UT Rio Grande Valley, UMKC, Seattle, Chicago State

Southland Conference

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Sam Houston State, Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Texas A&M CC, New Orleans, Stephen F. Austin, Southeast Louisiana, Nicholls State, Lamar, Northwestern State, McNeese State, Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist

Big Sky

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Weber State, Northern Colorado, Montana, Southern Utah, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, Idaho State, Sacramento State, Portland State, Idaho

Northeast

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Robert Morris, St. Francis (NY), Wagner, Sacred Heart, Bryant, LIU Brooklyn, Fairleigh Dickinson, St. Francis (PA), Central Connecticut State, Mount St. Mary’s

SWAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Prairie View, Alabama State, Texas Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Grambling, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Southern University, Mississippi Valley State, Alabama A&M

MEAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina Central, Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M, Coppin State, Howard, South Carolina State, Morgan State, Savanah State, Maryland Eastern Shore, Delaware State

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