Week One Bubble Watch
We are about to head into February and I thought it would be a good idea to breakdown the bubble. This will be an ongoing article coming out Saturday mornings every week until Selection Sunday. I will discuss it for each and every conference in College Basketball, this will become meaningless at some point with some mid-major leagues but I am determined to mention each mid-major team. While we still are a long way from Selection Sunday, it is always good to get an idea of where each team is currently at when discussing their tournament chances.
Bubble level Breakdowns:
Lock: This type of team is going to make the NCAA Tournament, they could lose out and they would probably still make it.
Safe: This type of team is likely very safe, they could afford a big losing streak and they still would be in the driver’s seat for a bid.
Room to spare: This type of team is safe for now but they are still needing to collect a few wins to stay away from the bubble.
Work left to do: This type of team is in the projected field but they still need to play well in order to avoid going on the bubble.
Bubble: This type of team right now is likely living and dying by every game if they win they could be in but if they lose a game they could be out, these types of teams are listed in the Last Four In or on the First Four Out.
Outside Looking in: This type of team is pretty clearly out but if they can make a run they could get back on the bubble and potentially move into the field of 68.
Win Conference Tournament: This type of team will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, their hopes of an at-large bid is gone.
ACC
Lock: Duke and Virginia
Safe: North Carolina, Louisville, and Virginia Tech
Room to spare: NC State and Florida State
Work left to do: Syracuse
Bubble: Pittsburgh and Clemson
Outside Looking in: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Boston College
Win Conference Tournament: Wake Forest
Big Ten
Lock: Michigan and Michigan State
Safe: Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa
Room to spare: Nebraska
Work left to do: Indiana
Bubble: Ohio State and Minnesota
Outside Looking in: Northwestern
Win Conference Tournament: Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois
Big 12
Lock: Kansas
Safe: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Iowa State
Room to spare: TCU
Work left to do: Baylor and Texas
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: Oklahoma State and West Virginia
Win Conference Tournament: No teams
Big East
Lock: Marquette
Safe: Villanova
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: St. John’s
Bubble: Seton Hall, Butler, and Creighton
Outside Looking in: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier, and Providence
Win Conference Tournament: No teams
SEC
Lock: Tennessee and Kentucky
Safe: LSU
Room to spare: Ole Miss, and Mississippi State
Work left to do: Auburn and Alabama
Bubble: Florida
Outside Looking in: South Carolina, Missouri and Arkansas
Win Conference Tournament: Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
PAC-12
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: Washington
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon and Arizona
Outside Looking in: Oregon State
Win Conference Tournament: UCLA, USC, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, and California
American
Lock: No teams
Safe: Houston
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: Cincinnati
Bubble: UCF and Temple
Outside Looking in: Memphis
Win Conference Tournament: SMU, South Florida, Uconn, Tulsa, Wichita State, East Carolina, and Tulane
West Coast Conference
Lock: Gonzaga
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: San Francisco, St. Mary’s
Win Conference Tournament: BYU, San Diego, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific, Portland
Mountain West
Lock: No teams
Safe: Nevada
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: Utah State, Fresno State
Win Conference Tournament: UNLV, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming, San Jose State
MAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: Buffalo
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Bowling Green, Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Toledo, Central Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan
Atlantic 10
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: VCU, St. Louis, Davidson
Win Conference Tournament: George Mason, Duquesne, Dayton, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, La Salle, St. Joesph’s, Richmond, Fordham, Umass
Southern Conference
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: Wofford
Outside Looking in: Furman, East Tennessee State and UNC Greensboro
Win Conference Tournament: Chattanooga, Mercer, Samford, Western Carolina, The Citadel, VMI
Ohio Valley
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: Murray State
Win Conference Tournament: Jacksonville State, Austin Peay, Belmont, Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky, SIU Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri, Tennessee-Martin
Conference USA
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Old Dominion, North Texas, UAB, Marshall, UTSA, Florida International, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee, Charlotte, UTEP
Missouri Valley
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Loyola-Chicago, Valparaiso, Drake, Illinois State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Bradley
Ivy League
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Princeton, Penn, Yale, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth
Horizon
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Northern Kentucky, Wright State, Oakland, Detroit, IUPUI, Green Bay, Illinois-Chicago, Milwaukee, Youngstown State, Cleveland State
Colonial
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Hofstra, Delaware, Northeastern, Charleston, Drexel, UNC Wilmington, William & Mary, Towson, James Madison, Elon
Big South
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Radford, Winthrop, Campbell, High Point, Hampton, Presbyterian, Longwood, Gardner-Webb, Charleston Southern, UNC Ashville, South Carolina Upstate
American East
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Vermont, Stony Brook, Umass Lowell, UMBC, Hartford, Binghamton, New Hampshire, Maine, Albany
Summit League
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: South Dakota State, Nebraska-Omaha, IPFW, Oral Roberts, South Dakota, North Dakota State, Western Illinois, Denver, North Dakota
Sun Belt
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Georgia State, Texas State, Texas-Arlington, Louisiana Monroe, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, Troy, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Little Rock, Appalachian State
Atlantic Sun
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Liberty, Lipscomb, North Alabama, NJIT, North Florida, Jacksonville, Florida Gulf Coast, Stetson, Kennesaw State
MAAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Rider, Canisius, Iona, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Siena, St. Peter’s, Marist, Niagara, Manhattan, Fairfield
Patriot League
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Bucknell, Lehigh, Army, Colgate, American, Loyola-Maryland, Navy, Holy Cross, Boston University, Lafayette
Big West
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, Cal-State Northridge, Cal-State Fullerton, Hawaii, Long Beach State, UC Riverside, UC Davis, Cal Poly
WAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Cal-State Bakersfield, Grand Canyon, New Mexico State, Utah Valley, Cal Baptist, UT Rio Grande Valley, UMKC, Seattle, Chicago State
Southland Conference
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Sam Houston State, Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Texas A&M CC, New Orleans, Stephen F. Austin, Southeast Louisiana, Nicholls State, Lamar, Northwestern State, McNeese State, Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist
Big Sky
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Weber State, Northern Colorado, Montana, Southern Utah, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, Idaho State, Sacramento State, Portland State, Idaho
Northeast
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Robert Morris, St. Francis (NY), Wagner, Sacred Heart, Bryant, LIU Brooklyn, Fairleigh Dickinson, St. Francis (PA), Central Connecticut State, Mount St. Mary’s
SWAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Prairie View, Alabama State, Texas Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Grambling, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Southern University, Mississippi Valley State, Alabama A&M
MEAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina Central, Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M, Coppin State, Howard, South Carolina State, Morgan State, Savanah State, Maryland Eastern Shore, Delaware State