Week Two Bubble Watch
We are now into February, which means the bubble is getting more clear. Obviously today’s games could influence what teams will move either up or down. Here is my Bubble Watch as we are nearing six weeks until the NCAA Tournament.
Bubble level Breakdowns:
Lock: This type of team is going to make the NCAA Tournament, they could lose out and they would probably still make it.
Safe: This type of team is likely very safe, they could afford a big losing streak and they still would be in the driver’s seat for a bid.
Room to spare: This type of team is safe for now but they are still needing to collect a few wins to stay away from the bubble.
Work left to do: This type of team is in the projected field but they still need to play well in order to avoid going on the bubble.
Bubble: This type of team right now is likely living and dying by every game if they win they could be in but if they lose a game they could be out, these types of teams are listed in the Last Four In or on the First Four Out.
Outside Looking in: This type of team is pretty clearly out but if they can make a run they could get back on the bubble and potentially move into the field of 68.
Win Conference Tournament: This type of team will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, their hopes of an at-large bid is gone.
ACC
Lock: Duke and Virginia
Safe: North Carolina, Louisville, and Virginia Tech
Room to spare: NC State and Florida State
Work left to do: Syracuse
Bubble: Clemson
Outside Looking in: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Boston College
Win Conference Tournament: Wake Forest
Big Ten
Lock: Michigan and Michigan State
Safe: Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: Nebraska and Minnesota
Bubble: Ohio State and Indiana
Outside Looking in: Northwestern and Rutgers
Win Conference Tournament: Penn State and Illinois
Big 12
Lock: Kansas
Safe: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Iowa State
Room to spare: TCU and Baylor
Work left to do: Texas
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: Oklahoma State and West Virginia
Win Conference Tournament: No teams
Big East
Lock: Marquette and Villanova
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: St. John’s
Bubble: Seton Hall, Butler, and Creighton
Outside Looking in: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier, and Providence
Win Conference Tournament: No teams
SEC
Lock: Tennessee and Kentucky
Safe: LSU
Room to spare: Ole Miss, and Mississippi State
Work left to do: Auburn and Alabama
Bubble: Florida
Outside Looking in: South Carolina, Missouri and Arkansas
Win Conference Tournament: Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
PAC-12
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: Washington
Bubble: Arizona State and Oregon
Outside Looking in: Oregon State and Arizona
Win Conference Tournament: UCLA, USC, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, and California
American
Lock: No teams
Safe: Houston
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: Cincinnati
Bubble: UCF and Temple
Outside Looking in: Memphis
Win Conference Tournament: SMU, South Florida, Uconn, Tulsa, Wichita State, East Carolina, and Tulane
West Coast Conference
Lock: Gonzaga
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: San Francisco and St. Mary’s
Win Conference Tournament: BYU, San Diego, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific, Portland
Mountain West
Lock: No teams
Safe: Nevada
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: Utah State and Fresno State
Win Conference Tournament: UNLV, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming, San Jose State
MAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: Buffalo
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Bowling Green, Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Toledo, Central Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan
Atlantic 10
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: VCU
Outside Looking in: St. Louis and Davidson
Win Conference Tournament: George Mason, Duquesne, Dayton, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, La Salle, St. Joesph’s, Richmond, Fordham, Umass
Southern Conference
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: Wofford
Outside Looking in: Furman and UNC Greensboro
Win Conference Tournament: East Tennessee State, Chattanooga, Mercer, Samford, Western Carolina, The Citadel, VMI
Ohio Valley
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: Murray State and Belmont
Win Conference Tournament: Jacksonville State, Austin Peay, Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky, SIU Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri, Tennessee-Martin
Conference USA
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Old Dominion, North Texas, UAB, Marshall, UTSA, Florida International, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee, Charlotte, UTEP
Missouri Valley
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Loyola-Chicago, Valparaiso, Drake, Illinois State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Bradley
Ivy League
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Princeton, Penn, Yale, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth
Horizon
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Northern Kentucky, Wright State, Oakland, Detroit, IUPUI, Green Bay, Illinois-Chicago, Milwaukee, Youngstown State, Cleveland State
Colonial
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Hofstra, Delaware, Northeastern, Charleston, Drexel, UNC Wilmington, William & Mary, Towson, James Madison, Elon
Big South
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Radford, Winthrop, Campbell, High Point, Hampton, Presbyterian, Longwood, Gardner-Webb, Charleston Southern, UNC Ashville, South Carolina Upstate
American East
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Vermont, Stony Brook, Umass Lowell, UMBC, Hartford, Binghamton, New Hampshire, Maine, Albany
Summit League
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: South Dakota State, Nebraska-Omaha, IPFW, Oral Roberts, South Dakota, North Dakota State, Western Illinois, Denver, North Dakota
Sun Belt
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Georgia State, Texas State, Texas-Arlington, Louisiana Monroe, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, Troy, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Little Rock, Appalachian State
Atlantic Sun
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Liberty, Lipscomb, NJIT, North Florida, Jacksonville, Florida Gulf Coast, Stetson, Kennesaw State
Not Eligible for Tournament: North Alabama
MAAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Rider, Canisius, Iona, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Siena, St. Peter’s, Marist, Niagara, Manhattan, Fairfield
Patriot League
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Bucknell, Lehigh, Army, Colgate, American, Loyola-Maryland, Navy, Holy Cross, Boston University, Lafayette
Big West
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, Cal-State Northridge, Cal-State Fullerton, Hawaii, Long Beach State, UC Riverside, UC Davis, Cal Poly
WAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Cal-State Bakersfield, Grand Canyon, New Mexico State, Utah Valley, UT Rio Grande Valley, UMKC, Seattle, Chicago State
Not Eligible for Tournament: Cal Baptist
Southland Conference
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Sam Houston State, Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Texas A&M CC, New Orleans, Stephen F. Austin, Southeast Louisiana, Nicholls State, Lamar, Northwestern State, McNeese State, Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist
Big Sky
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Weber State, Northern Colorado, Montana, Southern Utah, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, Idaho State, Sacramento State, Portland State, Idaho
Northeast
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Robert Morris, St. Francis (NY), Wagner, Sacred Heart, Bryant, LIU Brooklyn, Fairleigh Dickinson, St. Francis (PA), Central Connecticut State, Mount St. Mary’s
SWAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Prairie View, Alabama State, Texas Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Grambling, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Southern University, Mississippi Valley State
Not Eligible for Tournament: Alabama A&M
MEAC
Lock: No teams
Safe: No teams
Room to spare: No teams
Work left to do: No teams
Bubble: No teams
Outside Looking in: No teams
Win Conference Tournament: Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina Central, Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M, Coppin State, Howard, South Carolina State, Morgan State, Savanah State, Maryland Eastern Shore, Delaware State