Week Two Bubble Watch

Week Two Bubble Watch 

We are now into February, which means the bubble is getting more clear. Obviously today’s games could influence what teams will move either up or down. Here is my Bubble Watch as we are nearing six weeks until the NCAA Tournament. 

Bubble level Breakdowns: 

Lock: This type of team is going to make the NCAA Tournament, they could lose out and they would probably still make it. 

Safe: This type of team is likely very safe, they could afford a big losing streak and they still would be in the driver’s seat for a bid.

Room to spare: This type of team is safe for now but they are still needing to collect a few wins to stay away from the bubble. 

Work left to do: This type of team is in the projected field but they still need to play well in order to avoid going on the bubble. 

Bubble: This type of team right now is likely living and dying by every game if they win they could be in but if they lose a game they could be out, these types of teams are listed in the Last Four In or on the First Four Out. 

Outside Looking in: This type of team is pretty clearly out but if they can make a run they could get back on the bubble and potentially move into the field of 68.

Win Conference Tournament: This type of team will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, their hopes of an at-large bid is gone. 

ACC

Lock: Duke and Virginia

Safe: North Carolina, Louisville, and Virginia Tech

Room to spare: NC State and Florida State

Work left to do: Syracuse

Bubble: Clemson

Outside Looking in: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Boston College

Win Conference Tournament: Wake Forest

Big Ten

Lock: Michigan and Michigan State

Safe: Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Room to spare: No teams

Work left to do: Nebraska and Minnesota

Bubble: Ohio State and Indiana

Outside Looking in: Northwestern and Rutgers

Win Conference Tournament: Penn State and Illinois

Big 12

Lock: Kansas

Safe: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Iowa State

Room to spare: TCU and Baylor

Work left to do: Texas

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: Oklahoma State and West Virginia

Win Conference Tournament: No teams

Big East

Lock: Marquette and Villanova

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams

Work left to do: St. John’s

Bubble: Seton Hall, Butler, and Creighton 

Outside Looking in: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier, and Providence

Win Conference Tournament: No teams

SEC

Lock: Tennessee and Kentucky

Safe: LSU

Room to spare: Ole Miss, and Mississippi State

Work left to do: Auburn and Alabama

Bubble: Florida

Outside Looking in: South Carolina, Missouri and Arkansas

Win Conference Tournament: Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M

PAC-12

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams

Work left to do: Washington

Bubble: Arizona State and Oregon

Outside Looking in: Oregon State and Arizona

Win Conference Tournament: UCLA, USC, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, and California

American

Lock: No teams

Safe: Houston

Room to spare: No teams

Work left to do: Cincinnati

Bubble: UCF and Temple

Outside Looking in: Memphis

Win Conference Tournament: SMU, South Florida, Uconn, Tulsa, Wichita State, East Carolina, and Tulane

West Coast Conference

Lock: Gonzaga

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: San Francisco and St. Mary’s 

Win Conference Tournament: BYU, San Diego, Santa Clara, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific, Portland

Mountain West

Lock: No teams

Safe: Nevada

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: Utah State and Fresno State

Win Conference Tournament: UNLV, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming, San Jose State

MAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams

Work left to do: Buffalo

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Bowling Green, Kent State, Akron, Ohio, Miami (OH), Northern Illinois, Toledo, Central Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan

Atlantic 10

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: VCU

Outside Looking in: St. Louis and Davidson

Win Conference Tournament: George Mason, Duquesne, Dayton, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, La Salle, St. Joesph’s, Richmond, Fordham, Umass

Southern Conference

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: Wofford

Outside Looking in: Furman and UNC Greensboro

Win Conference Tournament: East Tennessee State, Chattanooga, Mercer, Samford, Western Carolina, The Citadel, VMI

Ohio Valley

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: Murray State and Belmont

Win Conference Tournament: Jacksonville State, Austin Peay, Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky, SIU Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri, Tennessee-Martin

Conference USA

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Old Dominion, North Texas, UAB, Marshall, UTSA, Florida International, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee, Charlotte, UTEP

Missouri Valley

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Loyola-Chicago, Valparaiso, Drake, Illinois State, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Bradley

Ivy League

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Princeton, Penn, Yale, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth

Horizon 

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Northern Kentucky, Wright State, Oakland, Detroit, IUPUI, Green Bay, Illinois-Chicago, Milwaukee, Youngstown State, Cleveland State

Colonial

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Hofstra, Delaware, Northeastern, Charleston, Drexel, UNC Wilmington, William & Mary, Towson, James Madison, Elon

Big South

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Radford, Winthrop, Campbell, High Point, Hampton, Presbyterian, Longwood, Gardner-Webb, Charleston Southern, UNC Ashville, South Carolina Upstate

American East

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Vermont, Stony Brook, Umass Lowell, UMBC, Hartford, Binghamton, New Hampshire, Maine, Albany

Summit League

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: South Dakota State, Nebraska-Omaha, IPFW, Oral Roberts, South Dakota, North Dakota State, Western Illinois, Denver, North Dakota

Sun Belt

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Georgia State, Texas State, Texas-Arlington, Louisiana Monroe, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, Troy, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Little Rock, Appalachian State

Atlantic Sun

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Liberty, Lipscomb, NJIT, North Florida, Jacksonville, Florida Gulf Coast, Stetson, Kennesaw State

Not Eligible for Tournament: North Alabama

MAAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Rider, Canisius, Iona, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, Siena, St. Peter’s, Marist, Niagara, Manhattan, Fairfield

Patriot League

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Bucknell, Lehigh, Army, Colgate, American, Loyola-Maryland, Navy, Holy Cross, Boston University, Lafayette

Big West

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, Cal-State Northridge, Cal-State Fullerton, Hawaii, Long Beach State, UC Riverside, UC Davis, Cal Poly

WAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Cal-State Bakersfield, Grand Canyon, New Mexico State, Utah Valley, UT Rio Grande Valley, UMKC, Seattle, Chicago State

Not Eligible for Tournament: Cal Baptist

Southland Conference

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Sam Houston State, Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, Texas A&M CC, New Orleans, Stephen F. Austin, Southeast Louisiana, Nicholls State, Lamar, Northwestern State, McNeese State, Incarnate Word, Houston Baptist

Big Sky

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Weber State, Northern Colorado, Montana, Southern Utah, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington, Idaho State, Sacramento State, Portland State, Idaho

Northeast

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Robert Morris, St. Francis (NY), Wagner, Sacred Heart, Bryant, LIU Brooklyn, Fairleigh Dickinson, St. Francis (PA), Central Connecticut State, Mount St. Mary’s

SWAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Prairie View, Alabama State, Texas Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Grambling, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Southern University, Mississippi Valley State

Not Eligible for Tournament: Alabama A&M

MEAC

Lock: No teams

Safe: No teams

Room to spare: No teams 

Work left to do: No teams

Bubble: No teams

Outside Looking in: No teams

Win Conference Tournament: Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina Central, Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M, Coppin State, Howard, South Carolina State, Morgan State, Savanah State, Maryland Eastern Shore, Delaware State

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